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| STRATEGY AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS | |||
LESS THAN
10% ANNUAL GROWTH-RATE?
THAT'S
PEANUTS FOR EMERGING COUNTRIES
DOUBLE-DIGIT GROWTH-RATE
IS NOT UTOPIA
(Part
2)
This
delivery is an addendum to our paper entitled:
"Strategy
for African Countries "
| |
| | |
| African
countries need to carry out economic development schemes capable of generating
strong economic growth-rates, in the double-digit range, and take all necessary
steps, gather all resources and means to sustain it over long period of 30-40
years. | 
|
FOR PART - 1 |
CONTINUATION
- PART - 3 |
CONTINUATION PART
- 4
FREQUENTLY
ASKED QUESTIONS
| |
Pr.
Abramowitz's¹ Catch- up
factor, which allows for steep increases of economic growth-rates, for countries
starting or restarting their developing (after a devastating war) is not a simple
theory.
The famous "catch-up factor" had been
effectively recorded.
In a book published
in 1994: "La Grande route du XXI siècle " (The 21st Century's Highway to Prosperity),
which unfortunately or oddly enough barely created media stir - Edouard
Parker², confirmed Abramowitz's studies and listed several countries
that experienced annual double-digit economic growth-rates over 30-40 year-period.
Namely: Japan (10% over 27 running years from 1946 to 1973);
Italy (+30% from 1945 to 1948); Germany (+11% from 1949 to 1954);
France (+12% from 1948 to 1951 and 10% from 1952 to 1957); South-Korea
(average of +10% over 30 running years from 1954 to 1989); Taiwan (average
of +8% over 47 years from 1952 to 1999); Singapore; Malaysia; Mauritius;
Botswana; The
Seychelles; Mozambique
(after the signing of 1993's cease fire, between Renamo's guerilla and the government,
Mozambique's Gross National Product made a jump of 19% in 1994; followed by three
years - from 1995 to 1999 - of high growth rates (10% - 11%) till the disastrous
floods of year 2000's first quarter that stopped the upward trend.
Above listed achievements are testimony to the fact that double-digit growth-rates of the economy,
over a long period of time, is not utopia. Not only for established developed countries
- recovering from war's destruction - but also for any emerging country. That fact had been hidden from developing countries by the dominating ethnocentrism.
Now that we Africans are aware of it - thanks to humanists like Edouard
Parker² - we should, from now on, act with more boldness; be less timorous
in forecasting our economic future and target +10% annual economic growth-rates.
We should always "think Big." Without any hint of complex.
Some people
may think that we do not have the sinews of the war that is the financing.
That opinion is as erroneous as the one that prevailed till now and
leads us to consider stunted one to 6 percent annual economic growth-rates as good performance.
Contrary to the common belief, there is plenty of financing available
around the world - independent from institutional bodies such as the World Bank,
the IMF - to finance projects as far as they are good profit-making projects.
Remains, however, the problem of "Guarantee" to secure needed funding.
Lenders are not ready to take risk to financing a project without the certainty
of recovering their funds. Collateral or security they
usually request from borrowers provides an irrevocable third party guarantee that they could, whatever happens, recover the invested funds.
The issuance of such "guarantee",
however, has been a major long-standing roadblock for many entrepreneurs from
sub-Saharan African countries; and, frequently, good, high profit-making projects
are unable to obtain necessary funding. They end-up in limbo.
That
hurdle also is no more a real hindrance. In order to solve collateral or security
problem, it is now possible to arrange for "Financial Guarantees"
to be issued by reputable guarantor(s) that are international insurance companies,
which are rated up to triple "A" by Standard & Poors. Click
here for more.
According to experts from Fox-Pitt, Kelton - Investment
Bank - these insurance companies have currently amass up to US$ 50 billion in excess
capital. A major bear market, combined with several years of poor result,
would be required to eliminate this excess capital. Therefore, the
problem now is too much capital chasing to little business. (For more
on the matter you may search Financial
Times' archives for an interesting article by Andrew Bolger, dated
Monday September 4, 2000.)
To benefit from that possibility, African countries
need to create attractive, clear, unequivocal investing Law framework and free
entrepreneurship atmosphere to attract direct foreign investments. African policy-makers
should avoid erratic strategy and wrong moves like the seizure of white's farmers
assets staged by Robert Mugabe for Land reform in Zimbabwe.
Theapproach adopted
by South Africa to resolve similar problems is the best.
Now
with the global economy and IT revolution, ethnocentrists are the losers. New
technology, vital information - for emerging countries - like Pr. Abramovitz's
Catching-Up theory and Edouard
Parker's findings on the reality
and feasibility of double-digit annual growth-rates cannot be skipped or ignored anymore by media.
Would remain in the backyard as poor dwellers of this global village
only countries, which rulers do not dare think and execute the "unthinkable":
target annual economic double-digit growth-rates.
| |
In addition to Pr. Abramowitz' theory, Edouard Parker, analyzing the findings here listed, provides more information about the generation of double-digit economic growth rates:
At less than 10 percent annual growth-rate
of the economy, for a poor country, the driving force of the growth-rate on the
development process is nil. The reason it is so are briefly exposed
below.
| -
In "poor" countries, the population growth-rate is in the range of 2%
- 3%. If the growth rate of the economy is below 3 percent , nothing happens. The
economy is either at standstill, "frozen in time" or in deep comatose
state. |
From 10 percent economic growth-rate's threshold. progress is perceptible, tangible and palpable. It is the right
time for decision-makers to mobilize the country in sustaining and accelerating
the developing process, to impeding the system to get jammed.
Thus,
thanks to E. Parker analysis of the findings here listed, one sees that below the threshold of 10% annual growth rate
of the economy, for a poor country, there is no hope for salvation.
| |
Some people may argue that performing double-digit annual economic
growth-rates would trigger inflation's run-up.
Yes
and no. Let's take two examples:
- In the East-coast territories
of Mainland China, the special economic zones established by the economic
reforms introduced by Deng
Xiaoping, and particularly in the big coastal cities, the economy
is experiencing a soaring growth rate amounting to 30% annually. And this is going on since more than 25
years. The economy of those special zones, which are the driving force of
the nation, is in a constant state of overheating, and China political authorities
are having difficulties to control the inflation rate, which fluctuates between
10 to 17 percent year in year out. Please note that, nevertheless, there is an overlapping
margin of 13 to 20 percent left for the growth of the economy.
- In the contrary,
Singapore, the city-state of 2,820,000 people, which economic successes are now
well known to everyone, has, since more than 45 years, a growth rate in the range
of 8 to 10 percent. Singapore is playing now in the second
category of countries, as defined by Abramowitz - and Singapore's policy-makers
have successfully controlled the inflation rate that fluctuates between zero and
2,5 percent - for a unemployment level in the range of 2 percent.
Singapore example
shows it is possible for countries to perform double-digit economic growth-rates, and nevertheless,
have a control on the inflation rate.
This lengthy introduction,
before the exposition of a scheme capable of generating double-digit annual economic
growth-rates, was necessary to clarify some important matters; to destroy economic
concepts and theories advocated and taught by Malthusian economists, which are
hindrances on the path to the sustainable economic developing of African countries.
Africans, from now on, should get
rid of these myths and have a clear vision to carving the roads towards prosperity:
| -
1°) - Africans should shed off any kind of complex and always target the minimum
of 10 percent annual economic growth-rate. |
In the continuation entitled "How
To Reach The Target,"
are exposed suggestions and strategy on how to implement the development
scheme capable of generating double-digit annual economic growth-rates over
several decades running.
© Dr. B.M. QUENUM
Investment
and Business Planner
Click
here for Part -1
Your feedback, objection and contribution are welcome
through this Discussion
When
on the discussion page , click on HELP link on the top of the page
To make
efficient use of the discussion board
(1) Moses Abramowitz, "Thinking About Growth: Catching
Up, Forging Ahead, and Falling Behind", Journal
of Economic History 46 (1986), 385-406.
(1 bis) Moses Abramowitz;
The Catch up factor in Postwar Economic Growth, Economic
Inquiry, January 1990.
(2) Edouard Parker; La
grande route de la croissance.
Etudes Prospectives Internationales, 10 bis rue
de Tahere -92210 St. Cloud (France)
©2001
Dr. Bienvenu-Magloire Quenum. All rights reserved
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