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AFRICABIZ ONLINE SYNOPSIS RSS FEED
Trading And Investing In & Out Africa

ISSUE 156- VOL 2
July 15 - October 14, 2019

Dr. Bienvenu-Magloire Quenum
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Welcome to the quarterly issue of Africabiz Online /free access Synopsis RSS Feed edition. Previous issue available at this link

The introduction to this issue is available at this link

- HOPEFULLY A GLOBAL WORLD WAR III WILL NOT BREAK OUT IN THE MIDDLE EAST

By Dr. Bienvenu-Magloire Quenum

News are "bad" and hot spots abound, in Venezuela, Iran, the Ukraine, Yemen, Syria, Libya, and North Korea - to name the major ones.

The biggest hot spot being Iran-U.S standoff resulting from the withdrawal of the United States from the international deal on Iranian nuclear program (May 8, 2018). And hitting Tehran with crippling sanctions.

Since the withdrawal, tensions soared, on a daily basis, with menaces of military intervention from the United States to punish Iran for a series of attacks on oils tankers in the United Arab Emirates sea territories, and in the Gulf of Oman; The U.S. even calling off an air strikes against Iran 10 minutes or so, before the scheduled attack hour, after Tehran downed an American drone - which, according to Iranian authorities, violated Iran's airspace.

After the US withdrew from the nuclear agreement, Iran asked the European joint signatories - France, UK, Germany to take appropriate diplomatic, financial and economic decisions/measures to save the deal. Which they have not been able to do in the time framework of 60 days required by Iran.

And out of patience, Iran announced beginning of July 2019 that it had enriched uranium past the 3.67 percent limit set by the nuclear deal, and has also surpassed the 300-kilogram cap on enriched uranium reserves in response for U.S. unilateral withdrawal and imposing sanctions against the Islamic Republic.

So, briefly condensed in above chapters, is the story of events leading to the current tense political, economic and military situation existing, in the Middle East/Persian Gulf region on mid-July 2019.

The Iranians are defiant and ready for a fight, not at all impressed by provocations of the adversary such as the seizure of one of their super tankers by British authorities.

- A War On Iran By the U.S. and Allies Would Be A Catastrophic Event

Any war, whatever may be the participants is a tragic and catastrophic event. A war on Iran, however, led by the United States of America and European and Arab allies  would be a catastrophic event of biblical proportion.

Indeed, it will not be a cakewalk, like the attack on Saddam Hussein's Iraq, as Iran is militarily and emotionally prepared, ready for a fight - together with the allies it had groomed for years, in Yemen, Afghanistan, Syria, and Lebanon - the famous Shia Crescent.

For sure, an attack on Iran, will ignite a gigantic tinderbox, creating unimaginable havoc not only in the Middle East, but worldwide as oil would reach astronomical pricing. Developing countries would struggle to cope, famine everywhere, troubles and riots. Etc. This would not bode well with forthcoming Mini-Ice Age - as soon as 2021 as here briefly exposed. The warmongers of all kinds, from the United States, Israel and some Arab countries would be playing with fire and should think twice before opening the hellish gate.

- Hopefully Cool Heads Would Prevailed and There Would be No War On Iran

Since two decades, the world has radically changed at unbelievable speed. Old power structures are crumbling on a daily basis; and only the blind, delusional or ill informed people - not aware of the trending behind the veil, are still relying on already dead domination schemes. The Internet had changed people perception - worldwide. What was hidden is now there for people of the whole world to see. And the true is that the power holders of the last two decades are no more in the position to dictate their whims and caprices to emerging countries such as Iran.

Further, there are now watchdogs nations - Russia and China, that would not leave a situation such as the invasion of Iraq repeat again.

China for instance, imports one fifth of its huge oils needs from the Arabian/Persian Gulf. Therefore, one can assume that China would not allow a war on Iran to jeopardize its economic development and its rise to a super power status. Which put on perspective the cancellation of the strike on Iran by the United States of America, 10 minutes before the missiles were to be released. We will never know (for now) what really happened. However, one can guess that a stark warning against the strike had been issued by one of the sentinels, Russia or China or both. Who knows? We shall know in the future.

Click the following link to read about "A Multipolar Power Structure Is Now Firmly Established. "

About the management of this Blog: Dr. Bienvenu-Magloire Quenum is the principal/ managing director of Dr. Quenum & Associates, IBC; an experienced Investment & Business Planner with 30 years consulting practice in African countries; author of Africans, Stop Being Poor! and the editor in chief of Africabiz Online

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