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Trading And Investing In & Out Africa

ISSUE 148 - VOL 2
July 15 - October 14, 2017

Dr. Bienvenu-Magloire Quenum
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Welcome to the quarterly issue of Africabiz Online /free access Synopsis & RSS Feed edition. Previous issue available at this link

The introduction to this issue is available at this link.

Uncertainty Is the Rule of the Day for All Countries of the World

By Dr. Bienvenu Magloire Quenum


As stated in the introduction to this issue, political and economic events, are evolving at a breakneck speed since April 2017.

And the elite in most countries are at loss - as it is difficult to foresee future's trends and plan accordingly. Nasty surprise can even occur overnight as witnessed at the beginning of June 2017 by the sudden economic blockade of the State of Qatar by neighboring Arab countries - Saudi Arabia, Emirates and few followers.

Europe and America are particularly affected by this astonishing change of rhythm. Their power structures are increasingly unstable - as here briefly exposed.

This issue discuss political and economic uncertainty in three African countries: Libya, Ivory Coast and Nigeria.

- The Uncertainty in Libya is Undisputable

In 2011, Nato's member states France, the UK, Italy, Germany and the United States of America staged the destruction of Jamahariya Libya. Africabiz Online extensively covered the onslaught and demolition of the most prosperous nation of Africa. Read in particular this delivery which gave the real reason of the vicious attack on Libya by Nato member states, in which the following had been stated:

"Simply put, Nato's member-nations are trying to steer back Libya Central Bank into the mainstream financial structure, under the watching eyes of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, to provide (reconstruction) funds to Libya with hefty interests payments - and transform a country which was free of debts (for four decades running) into a heavily indebted country - as done everywhere else in sub-Saharan African countries."

Six years after the destruction, had western countries achieved anything substantial to fully take control of Libya? Sure, they have the control of the new Libya Central Bank they moved from Tripoli to Benghazi. But they are struggling to stabilize the country. The Government of Unity they sponsored, and established at Tripoli, is daily challenged by the one located at Benghazi led by a new strongman Khalifa Haftiar, which is having the backing of Russia.

Oil production level is one tenth of the level achieved in 2010 by Jamarahiya Libya. Oil rigs are under permanent siege and regularly attacked by the Resistance to the intervention. And the persisting chaos in the country opens the floodgate of refugees/migrants to Europe.

In short, Nato intervention to topple Gaddafi is a disaster for the military alliance and western countries, which now have Russia inside Libya, backing a new strongman! Therefore, uncertainty would prevail till one of the faction win. Would it be the Nato's backed so-called Government of Unity, or the new one in Benghazi led by Khalifa Haftiar and back backed by Russia?

- Uncertainty Prevails in West Africa

Two west African economic powerhouses, Ivory Coast and Nigeria are politically in "deep" trouble.

In Ivory Coast, the former rebels who prompt-up Alassane Wattara to power, are on a permanent rebellious mood, that taints the undeniable economic recovery staged by the government since the end of the civil war in 2011. How this would evolve is an unknown equation that would find an eventual answer with the presidential ballot scheduled for 2020.

In Nigeria, in addition to the existing economic recession crippling the economic development of the whole ECOWAS region, there is now the health saga of the Head of State, Mohhamadu Buhari, in office since 2015, who, since elected, spent 85% of his time at a London Clinic, in UK, for an undisclosed illness.

The uncertainty in Ivory Coast and Nigeria is very bad for the economic future of the ECOWAS region, which is planning to establish a regional currency for 2020 horizon.

About the management of this Blog: Dr. Bienvenu-Magloire Quenum is the principal/ managing director of Dr. Quenum & Associates, IBC; an experienced Investment & Business Planner with 30 years consulting practice in African countries; author of Africans, Stop Being Poor! and the editor in chief of Africabiz Online

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