Trading And Investing In & Out Africa

ISSUE 128 - VOL 2
October 15, 2012 -January 14, 2013

Dr. Bienvenu-Magloire Quenum
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Middle East Crisis: It's All About Control of Energy Sourcing: Oil & Gas

By Dr. Bienvenu-Magloire Quenum

At the end to the introduction to this delivery it is stated that all the blood spilt in Libya, and now in Syria has nothing to do with promoting "democracy".

In the contrary, it is all about forcing independent states to becoming subservient clients to the powers of the day, which are determined to take full control of natural resources, production and distribution - wherever available, at any human cost - targeting nations they perceive as easy prey to conquer.

This was the trend all along the nineteenth and twentieth centuries - with the colonial powers, France, United Kingdom, Germany, and Portugal seizing/carving for themselves chunks of the African continent at the infamous 1815's Berlin Conference.

For its part, enacting Monroe Doctrine in December 2, 1823, the United States of America declares/considers that Central and South America are private political and economical backyard. To ascertain/implement the Doctrine, they engineered/sponsored coups after coups to make sure that local (national) South American and Central American power remain in the hands of rulers willing to comply with the United States's economic interests.

And the control trend of the powers of the day meddling with "weaker" nations's political destiny took a high tempo after 9/11 "terrorists" attacks on New York City and the Pentagon in Washington D.C. The United States of America, the reigning superpower declares War on Terror to go conquering the whole world.

Christopher Bollyn, few weeks after 9/11, on October 14, 2001, issued a remarkable article, The Great Game - The War For Caspian Oil And Gas, stating the following:

"President Bush's "crusade against the Taliban of Afghanistan has more to do with control of the immense oil and gas resources of the Caspian Basin than it does with rooting out terrorism".

For his part, Ayatoilet1 (a pseudonym) on July 28, 2012, delivered, in, a short and precise strategic analysis about the current turmoil in the Middle East. He explains that it is the consequence of conflicting pipelines's routes. The analysis is fully reproduced below. [Evidently, some statements made by ayatoilet1 are his, not endorsed by Africabiz Online, such as the affirmation that the Assad regime is the puppet of Iran and Russia. We simply believe the three countries are allied against the west competition].

Below outlined is the integral of ayatoilet1 analysis.

Courtesy ayatoilet1 Yes, Saudi Arabia just finished a pipeline across to the Red Sea and can pump out over a million barrels of oil per day in that direction avoiding shipping in the Persian Gulf. And this past month the UAE completed a pipeline from the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman to avoid shipping in the Persian Gulf.

Way before all this, the U.S. and its allies invaded both Afghanistan and Iraq. And in the process secured the world's second largest energy reserves in Iraq, and with Afghanistan secured a route around Iran to pump Natural Gas from the Caspian Sea to India.

But right now, Iraqi Oil still needs to get shipped out through the Persian Gulf, and what about major exporters from the Persian gulf: Qatar or even Kuwait? Don't worry a solution is at hand. A pipeline to Turkey. No less.

Look at this map(above). There is a a new pipeline called the Nabucco Pipeline designed to go from Turkey to Europe to feed natural gas from the Middle East. The eventual plan is for buyers to be able to purchase gas from different suppliers and for the Turks to become the distributors. The pipeline was conceived before 2004, and construction started even before the battle in Syria. The long-term plan is for gas from Qatar, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iraq etc. to be sold through that pipeline and provide Europe with an alternative source to the Russian supply.

Yes, Israel. The Israeli's have found one of the largest reserves of oil and natural gas right off their coast (on the border with Lebanon). They need to pipe all their natural gas to Turkey, to sell it to Europe. They have to cross Syria to do this. That is why there is such a massive effort to topple the Assad regime (he is an Iranian/Russian puppet after all).

Iran is being by passed with a Pipeline across Afghanistan to feed Pakistan and India and eventually Western China.

In this summary slide, I show how there is a competition between the U.S. and its allies and Iran/Russia/China for two different oil and gas distribution models.

Basically, if the battle for Syria is won by the West, these pipelines will all converge into Turkey and by pass Iran completely. And the Pipeline through Afghanistan is already a reality.

Voila, Iran is completely By Passed. The Iranian/Russian/Chinese concept is completely destroyed. The West and its allies and their companies will have captured the market as the principal suppliers to Europe, India and China!!

Russia today has a monopoly of Gas supply to Western Europe. Their monopoly will be destroyed, and Western Europeans (as well as Eastern Europeans - like the Ukrainians that were frozen out several years ago in the winter when the Russians cut off their gas supplies) will be able to buy from at least 7 different suppliers (Qatar, Israel, Iraq, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait) and then pay the Turks for distribution. They will have an invoice with two parts on it. One part for supply and a second part for distribution. (Just like in the U.S.).

And India Pakistan and China will be fed from Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan. (There will also be a two way pipeline under the Caspian Sea).

Iran is completely bypassed. Screwed - if you will. And the battle in Syria is part of the process. There really is a cold war going on. You would not know it from the hugs and kisses exchanged between Putin/Netenyahu, Putin/Hilary Clinton... Iran is getting screwed- but the Russians are getting screwed even harder.

That the end of ayatoilet1 analysis showing that conflicting/competing pipelines routes are the main reason behind the crisis in Syria.

Dr. Tarpley and other commentators go further explaining the same in the following video broadcast, demonstrating that the middle east turmoil is about...oil and gas pipelines. They show how the latest developments in Syria and Baku are playing out in this pipeline war between America and Russia. It has nothing to do with promoting democracy in Syria.

- The Outcome of the Syrian Crisis Will Shape the Political and Economic Stage of the 21rst Century

For the acute and focus observer of the international political scenery, it is obvious that the outcome of the Syrian crisis, regime change (victory of the west and allied); or failure to perform regime change (victory of Russia, Iran, Syria and Iraq - not to forget China, will shape the economic future of the world for the remaining decades of the 21rst century.

In an article published on October 12, 2012 in, Syria, Turkey, Israel and a Greater Middle East Energy War, F. William Engdahl concludes stating:

The battle for the future control of Syria is at the heart of this enormous geopolitical war and tug of war. Its resolution will have enormous consequences for either world peace or endless war and conflict and slaughter. NATO member Turkey is playing with fire as is Qatar’s Emir, along with Israel’s Netanyahu and NATO members France and USA. Natural gas is the flammable ingredient that is fueling this insane scramble for energy in the region.

Africabiz Online agrees completely with F. William Engdahl conclusion. One thing is certain though. We do not think that Iran and Russia would accept regime change in Syria. The stakes are too important for both countries.

Both countries have existential interests to implementing the Iran-Irak-Syria pipeline project which Agreement had been signed in July 25, 2011. It is good to notice that the project had been devised and agreed upon when the Syrian crisis was already boiling up.

The world at large is at a very crucial crossroad.

About the author: Dr. Bienvenu-Magloire Quenum is the principal/ managing director of Dr. Quenum & Associates, IBC; an experienced Investment & Business Planner with 30 years consulting practice in African countries; author of Africans, Stop Being Poor! and the editor in chief of Africabiz Online

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Many thanks for subscribing to Africabiz. See you here on January 15, 2013

  Dr. B.M. Quenum
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Business Opportunities


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